Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
