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For a brief period, Trump seemed to embrace a firm position on Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe consequences" last August in case Russia's president carried on obstructing peace talks, he finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly hindered Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's initiative would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal actually compromise that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if handing Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Giveaways

While maintaining in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defenses severely undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear path to the capital should he later opt to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its armed forces from their current large number soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, the proposal places no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, the plan declares: "All extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal includes Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of captured areas in the region to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the proposal promises a "immediate joint military response" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics include unclear to troubling. The initiative would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

International Response

A separate parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "serious, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But different from a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not