A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
